Volume 29 Issue 10
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(10): 1697-1700
XIE Lei, GU Jiaping. Nomogram modeling of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained HCV antiviral response[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(10): 1697-1700. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004208
Citation: XIE Lei, GU Jiaping. Nomogram modeling of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained HCV antiviral response[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(10): 1697-1700. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004208
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Nomogram modeling of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained HCV antiviral response

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004208

  • Department of Infection Medicine, Linping Campus, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Medical College, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311100, China

Funds:

 2024KY1462

  • Received Date: 2024-07-18
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To explore the factors influencing the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with a sustained response to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, and to construct a nomogram as a simple and intuitive tool for HCC risk prediction and prevention in these patients.  Methods  A total of ninety-seven patients with hepatitis C infection admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Medical College from June 2020 to June 2022, were selected as study subjects. A two-year follow-up was conducted, and the patients were divided into a hepatocellular carcinoma group (20 cases) and a hepatocellular carcinoma group (77 cases) according to the follow-up results. The factors associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained HCV antiviral response were analyzed, and a nomogram model was constructed, evaluated, and validated.  Results  The age, alcohol consumption, history of diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis, total bilirubin (TBIL), and alpha fetoprotein (AFP) levels differed significantly between patients who developed hepatocellular carcinoma and those who did not develop hepatocellular carcinoma (P < 0.05). The results of multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that age, alcohol consumption, history of diabetes, liver cirrhosis, and AFP were independent risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained HCV antiviral response (P < 0.05). The ROC curves showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram model constructed in this study were 0.862 (95% CI: 0.805-0.939). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that (χ2=5.028, P=0.670).  Conclusion  The development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained HCV antiviral response is related to age, alcohol consumption, history of diabetes, cirrhosis, and AFP. The nomograph model based on these factors shows high accuracy and consistency.

     

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