Volume 29 Issue 10
Oct.  2025
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(10): 1667-1671
WANG Haigang, LI Yanling, LI Yuebing, LIU Lu, HUANG Yuliang, WANG Xinhua, YANG Shiwei. The value of neuroinflammation-related factors in predicting the occurrence of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with spinal fractures and the construction of predictive models[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(10): 1667-1671. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004201
Citation: WANG Haigang, LI Yanling, LI Yuebing, LIU Lu, HUANG Yuliang, WANG Xinhua, YANG Shiwei. The value of neuroinflammation-related factors in predicting the occurrence of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with spinal fractures and the construction of predictive models[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(10): 1667-1671. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004201
shu

The value of neuroinflammation-related factors in predicting the occurrence of postoperative delirium in elderly patients with spinal fractures and the construction of predictive models

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004201
  • 1.

    Department of Anesthesiology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medicine University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310012, China

Funds:

 2024ZR173

  • Received Date: 2025-02-11
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To explore the relationship between neuroinflammation neuroinflammation-related factors and delirium in elderly patients suffering from spinal fractures, this study constituted an investigation into the measurement of baseline neuroinflammation-related factors in elderly patients with spinal fractures. The construction of a risk prediction model was then based on the findings.  Methods  From January 2022 to June 2024, a total of 426 elderly patients afflicted with spinal fractures were enrolled in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medicine University. According to the ratio of 7∶3, the patients were divided into a training set (n=298) and a verification set (n=128). According to the incidence of postoperative delirium, the patients were categorized into two groups (the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group) to explore the influencing factors of delirium. Meanwhile, a prediction model was also constructed.  Results  Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, operation time, interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1β, C-reactive protein (CRP), and central nervous system-specific protein (S100β) were all independent influencing factors for the occurrence of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing spinal fracture surgery (P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model constructed based on the above influencing factors for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing spinal fracture surgery was 0.881, with a sensitivity of 85.71%, a specificity of 79.75%, and a Youden index of 0.655. Validation by the validation set showed that the AUC of this prediction model was 0.858 (95% CI: 0.782-0.916), with a sensitivity of 80.65%, a specificity of 76.47%, and a Youden index of 0.571. Decision curve analysis revealed that the threshold probabilities of the training set and the validation set were 1% and 2% respectively, suggesting that this prediction model had a relatively high net benefit.  Conclusion  Age, operation time, IL-6, IL-1β, CRP and S100β as the influencing factors of delirium in elderly patients with spinal fracture, and the prediction model based on these factors has high prediction efficiency.

     

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