Volume 23 Issue 5
May  2025
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(5): 737-741
ZHU Xianshang, MAO Huabo, CHENG Hu, WANG Jiancheng, XU Yin juan. Establishment and verification of clinical prediction model of hypertension complicated with diabetes in elderly people in community[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(5): 737-741. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003990
Citation: ZHU Xianshang, MAO Huabo, CHENG Hu, WANG Jiancheng, XU Yin juan. Establishment and verification of clinical prediction model of hypertension complicated with diabetes in elderly people in community[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(5): 737-741. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003990
shu

Establishment and verification of clinical prediction model of hypertension complicated with diabetes in elderly people in community

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003990
  • 1.

    First Clinical Medical College, Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

Funds:

 72264002

 2022KTZ010

 22GSSYD-54

  • Received Date: 2024-11-18
    Available Online: 2025-08-14
    Abstract
  •   Objective  The objective of this study is two-fold: firstly, to analyze the risk factors associated with diabetes in elderly patients suffering from hypertension in the community, and secondly, to construct a prediction model. The ultimate aim of this study is to provide a reference for the prevention and management of diabetes in elderly patients suffering from hypertension in the community.  Methods  From April 2023 to March 2024, the clinical data of 1 859 elderly patients with hypertension aged 65 years and over who participated in chronic disease management in the Tuanjie Community Health Service Centre were collected for the purpose of the study. The data were randomly partitioned into a training set comprising 1 301 cases and a validation set consisting of 558 cases, at a ratio of 7∶3 by means of a simple random sampling method. The LASSO regression method was employed to reduce the dimensionality of the variables, while multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the risk factors associated with hypertension in conjunction with diabetes. Subsequently, a Nomogram prediction model was developed. The validation set was utilized for the purpose of internal validation. The receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was employed to evaluate the discrimination of the model, the calibration curve was delineated and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the consistency of the model, and the decision analysis was used to evaluate the validity of the model.  Results  In a study of 1 859 elderly hypertensive patients, 546 (29.37%) were found to have diabetes mellitus. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a family history of chronic diseases, fatigue, chest tightness and sugar addiction were independent risk factors for hypertension combined with diabetes. Nevertheless, superior cognitive function and the undertaking of daily exercise were found to be protective factors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction model constructed from the training set was 0.873 (95% CI: 0.850-0.873). The calibration curve' s slope was close to 1, and the H-L goodness of fit test yielded a chi-squared value of 6.511, a P value of 0.260, and good consistency. The decision curve indicated a net benefit from the model.  Conclusion  The prevalence of hypertension in combination with diabetes is high among the elderly population in this community. The prediction model, which is based on six community-measurable clinical characteristics, demonstrates both good predictive ability and clinical application value in predicting the occurrence of hypertension in combination with diabetes.

     

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