Volume 23 Issue 5
May  2025
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of General Practice  > 2025  >  23(5): 785-788
LU Sujuan, LIN Min, SONG Li, CHEN Feifei, CHEN Xiufang. Establishment of a risk prediction model for secondary aspiration pneumonia in elderly stroke patients with dysphagia[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(5): 785-788. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004001
Citation: LU Sujuan, LIN Min, SONG Li, CHEN Feifei, CHEN Xiufang. Establishment of a risk prediction model for secondary aspiration pneumonia in elderly stroke patients with dysphagia[J]. Chinese Journal of General Practice, 2025, 23(5): 785-788. doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004001
shu

Establishment of a risk prediction model for secondary aspiration pneumonia in elderly stroke patients with dysphagia

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.004001

  • Department of Geriatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325000, China

Funds:

 2024KY1246

  • Received Date: 2024-10-09
    Available Online: 2025-08-14
    Abstract
  •   Objective  To analyze the risk factors of secondary aspiration pneumonia (AP) in patients with post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) and to establish a prediction model, aiming to provide a scientific basis for clinical prevention and intervention strategies.  Methods  Clinical data of elderly patients with PSD admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from February 2022 to February 2024 were retrospectively collected. The elderly patients with PSD were divided into an AP group and a non-AP group according to the presence or absence of secondary AP. The risk factors of secondary AP in PSD were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic analyses, and a prediction model was subsequently established. The predictive efficiency of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.  Results  Among the 82 patients with PSD, 31 developed AP, yielding an incidence rate of 37.80%. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant differences between the AP and non-AP group in age, smoking history, the National Institutes of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score, Water swallow test results, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), length of hospital stay, and tube feeding. Multivariate logistic regression analysis results identified age, NIHSS score, and water swallow test results as independent influence factors for secondary AP in patients with PSD (P < 0.05). Based on the logistic analysis results, a prediction model was constructed. ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of this model was 0.845 (95% CI: 0.659-0.953). At a cut-off value of 0.39, the model achieved a sensitivity of 88.89% and specificity of 68.42%.  Conclusion  Advanced age, elevated NIHSS score, and high drinking water test level were independent risk factors for secondary AP in PSD patients. The prediction model based on these risk factors demonstrates good discriminative ability for predicting secondary AP in PSD patients.

     

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