1990—2019年全球帕金森病疾病负担的APC分析

刘浩宇; 朋文佳; 芈静; 贾贤杰; 张玉媛

doi:10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003353

1990—2019年全球帕金森病疾病负担的APC分析

doi: 10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003353

刘浩宇¹,
朋文佳^{1, 2},
芈静¹,
贾贤杰¹,
张玉媛^1, ,

1.
蚌埠医科大学公共卫生学院，安徽蚌埠 233030
2.
复旦大学公共卫生学院，上海 200433

基金项目:

安徽省教育厅自然科学重点项目 KJ2021A0710

蚌埠医学院科技项目重点项目 2020byzd044

详细信息

通讯作者:
张玉媛，E-mail: zhyy8727@126.com

中图分类号: R742.5
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-06-19
- 网络出版日期: 2024-03-09

APC analysis of the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2019

1.
School of Public Health, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, Anhui 233030, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1990—2019年全球帕金森病疾病负担的趋势，探讨年龄、时期、队列对帕金森病疾病负担发生风险的影响。方法通过收集分析1990—2019年全球帕金森病的疾病负担数据，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析全球帕金森病疾病负担的变化趋势，采用年龄-时期-队列模型(APC模型)分析全球帕金森病疾病负担的发生风险的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果 1990—2019年全球的帕金森病的标化伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率总体无变化趋势(P>0.05), 男性和女性的标化DALY率分别为上升和下降趋势，男性的标化DALY率从102.86/10万上升至106.44/10万，年平均上升速度为0.119%[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=0.119，t=2.559，P=0.010]，女性的标化DALY率从61.61/10万下降至59.91/10万，年平均下降速度为0.097%(AAPC=-0.997，t=2.565，P=0.010)。APC模型结果显示，1990—2019年帕金森病DALY率风险的年龄效应为随年龄的增大先增加后降低(P < 0.05)；时期效应为随年份的增加而增大(P < 0.05)；队列效应为随出生队列的发展而降低(P < 0.05)。结论 1990—2019年，全球人群帕金森病疾病负担总体无变化趋势，男性为上升趋势，女性为下降趋势，疾病负担发生风险随着年龄的增长先增长后下降，随着年份的增加而增加，随着出生队列的增长而降低，需加强老年人等特殊人群的预防工作，降低未来全球帕金森病的疾病负担。
- 帕金森病 /
- 疾病负担 /
- 年龄-时期-队列模型
Abstract: Objective Analysis of the trends in the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease from 1990-2019 and to explore the impact of age, period, and cohort on the risk of developing the disease burden of Parkinson's disease. Methods By collecting and analyzing the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2019, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of the disease burden of Parkinson's disease, and the age-period-cohort model (APC model) was used to analyze the age, period and cohort effects of the disease burden of Parkinson's disease. Results The global standard disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate for Parkinson's disease showed no overall trend from 1990 to 2019 (P>0.05), the standard DALY rate (per 100 000 population) of males and females increased and decreased, respectively. The standard DALY rate of males increased from 102.86 to 106.44, with an annual average increase rate of 0.119% [average annual percentage change (AAPC)=0.119, t=2.559, P=0.010]. The normalized DALY rate (per 100 000 population) in females decreased from 61.61 to 59.91, with an annual average rate of 0.097% (AAPC=-0.097, t=2.565, P=0.010). Results of the APC model showed that the age effect of DALY rate risk of PD increased first and then decreased with increasing age during 1990-2019 (P < 0.05). The period effect increased with the increase of year (P < 0.05). The cohort effect decreased with the progression of the birth cohort (P < 0.05). Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, there was no change in the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease, Males showed an upward trend and females showed a downward trend. The risk of disease burden increased first and then decreased with the increase of age, increased with the increase of years, and decreased with the increase of birth cohort. Prevention efforts should be strengthened in special groups such as the elderly. Reducing the future global burden of Parkinson's disease.
- Parkinson's disease /
- Burden of disease /
- Age-period-cohort model

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表 1 1990—2019年全球PD的DALY率的变化趋势

Table 1. Trends in the global DALY rate of Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2019

项目	标化DALY率(/10万)		APC(%, 95% CI)	AAPC(%, 95% CI)	t值	P值
项目	1990	2019	APC(%, 95% CI)	AAPC(%, 95% CI)	t值	P值
全球	78.09	79.97		0.083(-0.012~0.184)	1.682	0.087
1990年~			0.192(0~0.398)
1995年~			0.696(0.421~0.957)
2000年~			0.223(-0.041~0.478)
2005年~			-0.214(-0.467~0.062)
2010年~			-0.233(-0.502~0.054)
2015年~			-0.231(-0.537-0.064)
男性	102.86	106.44		0.119(0.028~0.210)	2.559	0.010
1990年~			0.096(-0.185~0.379)
1995年~			0.803(0.548~1.058)
2000年~			0.447(0.198~0.696)
2005年~			-0.083(-0.333~0.168)
2010年~			-0.153(-0.403~0.098)
2015年~			-0.395(-0.588~-0.203)
女性	61.61	59.91		-0.097(-0.171~-0.023)	2.565	0.010
1990年~			0.189(-0.020~0.399)
1995年~			0.191(-0.018~0.401)
2000年~			0.225(0.023~0.427)
2005年~			-0.556(-0.760~-0.352)
2010年~			-0.405(-0.612~-0.197)
2015年~			-0.165(-0.324~-0.005)

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表 2 1990—2019年全球女性PD的DALY率的APC分析

Table 2. APC analysis of DALY rate of PD in women worldwide from 1990 to 2019

项目	Coef	SE	Z值	P值	95% CI	项目	Coef	SE	Z值	P值	95% CI
年龄(岁)						队列(年)
0~ < 25	-3.889	0.956	-4.070	＜0.001	-5.763~-2.015	1899—1903	1.777	0.207	8.560	＜0.001	1.370~3.184
25~ < 30	-3.406	0.645	-5.280	＜0.001	-4.669~-2.142	1904—1908	1.632	0.181	9.000	＜0.001	1.276~1.987
30~ < 35	-2.631	0.435	-6.040	＜0.001	-3.484~-1.777	1909—1913	1.478	0.159	9.300	＜0.001	1.166~1.789
35~ < 40	-2.185	0.345	-6.320	＜0.001	-2.863~-1.507	1914—1918	1.319	0.141	9.320	＜0.001	1.042~1.597
40~ < 45	-0.962	0.237	-4.060	＜0.001	-1.428~-0.497	1919—1923	1.133	0.130	8.680	＜0.001	0.877~1.388
45~ < 50	-0.365	0.194	-1.880	0.060	-0.746~0.015	1924—1928	0.954	0.127	7.480	＜0.001	0.704~1.203
50~ < 55	0.072	0.160	0.450	0.653	-0.242~0.386	1929—1933	0.750	0.133	5.640	＜0.001	0.489~1.012
55~ < 60	0.364	0.131	2.790	0.005	0.107~0.620	1934—1938	0.567	0.146	3.870	＜0.001	0.279~0.854
60~ < 65	0.783	0.103	7.570	＜0.001	0.581~0.986	1939—1943	0.359	0.165	2.160	0.031	0.033~0.684
65~ < 70	1.314	0.082	15.890	＜0.001	1.152~1.476	1944—1948	0.163	0.189	0.860	0.387	-0.207~0.535
70~ < 75	1.882	0.073	25.490	＜0.001	1.737~2.027	1949—1953	-0.033	0.216	-0.160	0.876	-0.458~0.391
75~ < 80	2.265	0.080	28.190	＜0.001	2.108~2.423	1954—1958	-0.245	0.246	-1.000	0.319	-0.729~0.237
80~ < 85	2.433	0.098	24.660	＜0.001	2.240~2.627	1959—1963	-0.463	0.278	-1.660	0.097	-1.010~0.083
85~ < 90	2.315	0.123	18.730	＜0.001	2.073~2.558	1964—1968	-0.662	0.313	-2.110	0.035	-1.277~-0.047
90~ < 95	2.007	0.151	13.210	＜0.001	1.709~2.305	1969—1973	-0.894	0.356	-2.510	0.012	-1.593~-0.195
时期(年)						1974—1978	-1.113	0.430	-2.590	0.010	-1.957~-0.270
1994	-0.454	0.084	-5.390	＜0.001	-0.619~-0.289	1979—1983	-1.316	0.602	-2.190	0.029	-2.497~-0.136
1999	-0.271	0.051	-5.270	＜0.001	-0.372~-0.170	1984—1988	-1.579	0.840	-1.880	0.060	-3.227~0.068
2004	-0.087	0.021	-4.140	＜0.001	-0.128~-0.046	1989—1993	-1.788	1.334	-1.340	0.180	-4.403~0.826
2009	0.079	0.021	3.710	＜0.001	0.037~0.121	1994—1998	-2.036	2.630	-0.770	0.439	-7.192~3.118
2014	0.282	0.051	5.490	＜0.001	0.181~0.383
2019	0.450	0.083	5.390	＜0.001	0.286~0.614

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表 3 1990—2019年全球男性PD的DALY率的APC分析

Table 3. APC analysis of DALY rate of PD in men worldwide from 1990 to 2019

项目	Coef	SE	Z值	P值	95% CI	项目	Coef	SE	Z值	P值	95% CI
年龄(岁)						队列(年)
0~ < 25	-4.071	0.823	-4.940	＜0.001	-5.684~-2.457	1899—1903	1.861	0.169	10.970	＜0.001	1.529~2.194
25~ < 30	-3.348	0.496	-6.740	＜0.001	-4.321~-2.374	1904—1908	1.689	0.149	11.280	＜0.001	1.395~1.982
30~ < 35	-2.645	0.347	-7.620	＜0.001	-3.325~-1.965	1909—1913	1.541	0.133	11.570	＜0.001	1.280~1.802
35~ < 40	-2.220	0.278	-7.970	＜0.001	-2.767~-1.674	1914—1918	1.354	0.120	11.260	＜0.001	1.118~1.590
40~ < 45	-0.937	0.190	-4.920	＜0.001	-1.310~-0.563	1919—1923	1.162	0.112	10.330	＜0.001	0.942~1.383
45~ < 50	-0.414	0.158	-2.620	0.009	-0.724~-0.104	1924—1928	0.966	0.110	8.740	＜0.001	0.749~1.183
50~ < 55	0.009	0.131	-0.070	0.942	-0.267~0.247	1929—1933	0.756	0.115	6.580	＜0.001	0.531~0.982
55~ < 60	0.290	0.107	2.710	0.007	0.080~0.501	1934—1938	0.549	0.125	4.390	＜0.001	0.304~0.794
60~ < 65	0.757	0.085	8.900	＜0.001	0.591~0.924	1939—1943	0.344	0.139	2.460	0.014	0.070~0.618
65~ < 70	1.291	0.067	19.040	＜0.001	1.158~1.424	1944—1948	0.141	0.157	0.900	0.370	-0.167~0.451
70~ < 75	1.893	0.059	31.870	＜0.001	1.777~2.010	1949—1953	-0.067	0.178	-0.380	0.707	-0.417~0.283
75~ < 80	2.333	0.062	37.040	＜0.001	2.209~2.456	1954—1958	-0.280	0.202	-1.390	0.164	-0.677~0.115
80~ < 85	2.527	0.076	33.060	＜0.001	2.377~2.677	1959—1963	-0.477	0.227	-2.100	0.035	-0.922~-0.032
85~ < 90	2.462	0.095	25.750	＜0.001	2.275~2.650	1964—1968	-0.686	0.253	-2.700	0.007	-1.184~-0.188
90~ < 95	2.089	0.117	17.740	＜0.001	1.858~2.320	1969—1973	-0.899	0.286	-3.140	0.002	-1.461~-0.338
时期(年)						1974—1978	-1.123	0.340	-3.300	0.001	-1.791~-0.455
1994	-0.525	0.066	-7.860	＜0.001	-0.657~-0.394	1979—1983	-1.339	0.477	-2.810	0.005	-2.275~-0.404
1999	-0.306	0.040	-7.520	＜0.001	-0.386~-0.226	1984—1988	-1.574	0.651	-2.420	0.016	-2.851~-0.296
2004	-0.096	0.016	-5.870	＜0.001	-0.128~-0.064	1989—1993	-1.789	1.033	-1.730	0.083	-3.816~0.236
2009	0.115	0.016	6.990	＜0.001	0.083~0.148	1994—1998	-2.128	2.293	-0.930	0.353	-6.623~2.365
2014	0.312	0.040	7.670	＜0.001	0.232~0.392
2019	0.499	0.066	7.530	＜0.001	0.369~0.630

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