Research on the monitoring of pathogens and the prediction model of risk factors for hospital-acquired pneumonia in intensive care unit
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摘要:
目的 研究重症监护室(ICU)医院获得性肺炎(hospital-acquired pneumonia，HAP)相关危险因素，了解HAP的病原菌构成。构建并评价HAP发生的风险因素预测模型，便于风险人群筛查，以防控HAP的发生。 方法 收集某综合性医院综合ICU 2020年1月—2021年3月住院患者资料，同时对痰标本分离病原菌进行监测。采用logistic回归分析构建HAP风险因素预测模型并评价。 结果 共纳入研究病例570例，其中HAP 34例。HAP患者痰标本中分离病原菌以革兰氏阴性菌为主。多因素分析显示，营养不良、侵袭性操作、住ICU天数＞10 d、肺部慢性疾病是患者发生HAP的独立危险因素(均P＜0.05)。建立回归模型：logit(P)=-7.870+2.496×营养不良+2.173×侵袭性操作+1.440×住ICU天数＞10 d+1.054×肺部慢性疾病。Hosmer和Lemeshow拟合优度检验：χ2=3.022，P=0.933。ROC曲线下面积为0.895，95% CI为0.847~0.943。 结论 HAP患者痰标本分离菌以革兰氏阴性菌为主。营养不良、侵袭性操作、住ICU天数＞10 d、肺部慢性疾病是ICU患者发生HAP的独立危险因素。利用logistic回归分析构建风险因素预测模型有较好的预测效果。 Abstract:Objective To study the risk factors of hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in intensive care unit (ICU) and the composition of HAP pathogens. To construct and evaluate the risk prediction model of HAP, so as to facilitate the screening of risk population and prevent and control the occurrence of HAP. Methods Data of hospitalized patients in the comprehensive ICU of a general hospital from January 2020 to March 2021 were collected, and pathogenic bacteria were isolated and monitored. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct the risk factor prediction model and evaluate it. Results A total of 570 cases were included in this study, including 34 cases of HAP. The pathogens isolated from sputum specimens of HAP patients were mainly gram-negative bacteria. Multivariate analysis showed that malnutrition, invasive operation, length of stay in ICU>10 days and chronic pulmonary disease were independent risk factors for HAP (P < 0.05). Regression model was established: logit (P)=-7.870+2.496×alnutrition+2.173×nvasive operation+1.440×ength of stay in ICU>10 days+1.054×hronic pulmonary disease. Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test: χ2=3.022, P=0.933. The area under the ROC curve was 0.895, 95% CI was 0.847-0.943. Conclusion The bacteria isolated from HAP sputum specimens are mainly gram-negative bacteria. Malnutrition, invasive operation, length of stay in ICU>10 days and chronic pulmonary disease are independent risk factors for HAP in ICU patients. The risk factor prediction model constructed by logistic regression analysis can achieve better prediction effect. -
Key words:
- Hospital-acquired pneumonia /
- Intensive care unit /
- Risk prediction model
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表 1 HAP检出病原菌构成情况(%)
Table 1. The composition of pathogenic bacteria(%)
细菌名称 株数 构成比(%) 革兰氏阴性菌 40 86.96 鲍曼不动杆菌 15 32.61 肺炎克雷伯菌 10 21.74 铜绿假单胞菌 5 10.87 大肠埃希菌 3 6.52 洋葱伯克霍尔德菌 3 6.52 嗜麦芽窄食单胞菌 2 4.35 阴沟肠杆菌 2 4.35 革兰氏阳性菌 3 6.52 金黄色葡萄球菌 2 4.35 人葡萄球菌 1 2.17 真菌 3 6.52 白色念珠菌 3 6.52 合计 46 100.00 
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表 2 HAP相关危险因素分析
Table 2. Analysis of HAP-related risk factors
因素 类别 非HAP(n=536) HAP(n=34) χ2值 P值 高龄 是 285 25 5.341 0.021 否 251 9 性别 男性 293 23 2.181 0.140 女性 243 11 吸烟 是 179 17 3.907 0.048 否 357 17 肺部慢性疾病 是 99 11 3.957 0.047 否 437 23 糖尿病 是 95 6 <0.001 0.991 否 441 28 住ICU天数＞10 d 是 138 16 7.365 0.007 否 398 18 手术 是 267 23 4.069 0.044 否 269 11 营养不良 是 105 23 42.404 <0.001 否 431 11 联用抗菌药物 是 378 30 4.931 0.026 否 158 4 侵袭性操作 是 214 26 17.517 <0.001 否 322 8 恶性肿瘤 是 32 2 <0.001 0.983 否 504 32
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表 3 变量赋值方法
Table 3. Variable assignment method
因素 赋值方法 发生HAP 是=1，否=0 高龄 是=1，否=0 吸烟 是=1，否=0 肺部慢性疾病 是=1，否=0 住ICU天数＞10 d 是=1，否=0 手术 是=1，否=0 营养不良 是=1，否=0 联用抗菌药物 是=1，否=0 侵袭性操作 是=1，否=0
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表 4 HAP危险因素的logistic多因素回归分析
Table 4. Logistic multivariate regression analysis of HAP risk factors
项目 B SE Wald χ2 P值 OR值 95% CI 营养不良 2.496 0.439 32.264 <0.001 12.132 5.128~28.704 侵袭性操作 2.173 0.477 20.732 <0.001 8.784 3.447~22.384 住ICU天数＞10 d 1.440 0.438 10.807 0.001 4.219 1.788~9.953 肺部慢性疾病 1.054 0.453 5.415 0.020 2.869 1.181~6.972
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